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Serve dominance

Grid of the share of first serves in play that go unreturned, by how many games each set of balls has been used, on men's tour-level hard courts in 2022–26. Fresh balls average 43% unreturned and worn balls 34%, dropping from 42–44% with new balls to the mid 30s after five or more games.

Fresh out the can

This is so interesting because there's a measurable impact from newer/older balls on rates of aces, holds, unreturned, double faults, 1st serve in %, rally length et al.

July 2026

Dot plots of hard-court hold percentages for top-50 ATP players in 1994 and 2025/26. In 1994, 44% held at least 80% of their service games, with Sampras around 87% and Ivanišević about 84%; in 2025/26, 84% do, led by Sinner at about 92.5%, with Ruud near 87.5% and Davidovich Fokina near 84%.

So much for the serve era

Casper Ruud holds serve more often than Sampras did on hard courts in 1994 & Davidovich Fokina holds serve more often than Ivanišević.

March 2026