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Two flow charts of first-serve points for top-20 servers in 2025–26: against each other (72.4% won) and against Sinner or Alcaraz (64.8% won). Against the pair, fewer first serves go unreturned (32% against 38%), and the server's +1 shot wins less often on both the forehand (6.5 points lower) and the backhand (8.4 points lower).

The Sinner & Alcaraz Tax

Sinner and Alcaraz tax the top 20 the way they tax everyone else. And nobody can tax them back.

April 2026Essay, 2 min read5 charts

© 2026 Matthew Willis