First serve

Rafa Jódar's first-serve return

Jódar’s return is finally getting more attention but it’s worth looking at why.

August 2026

Grid of the share of first serves in play that go unreturned, by how many games each set of balls has been used, on men's tour-level hard courts in 2022–26. Fresh balls average 43% unreturned and worn balls 34%, dropping from 42–44% with new balls to the mid 30s after five or more games.

Fresh out the can

This is so interesting because there's a measurable impact from newer/older balls on rates of aces, holds, unreturned, double faults, 1st serve in %, rally length et al.

July 2026

Scatter plot of first-serve returns in play against first-serve return points won for the ATP top 20 plus Jodar, Fils and Fonseca. Sinner and Alcaraz win 35% while getting 68–69% back in play; Jodar also wins 35% from 64% in; Shelton is lowest at 24% won from 61% in. Tour averages are 65% in and 28% won.

First-serve returns: in vs won

1st serve returns in play vs 1st serve return win rate 2025-2026. Top 20 + Jodar, Fils, Fonseca

June 2026

Two court diagrams of Alcaraz's ad-side first serves on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. On all points (n=667) he goes 41% wide, 15% body and 44% T, winning 72 to 74% out wide and down the T. On break points (n=56) 71% go wide or body (48% wide, 23% body, 29% T) and he wins only 59% of the wide serves.

Alcaraz has a serve problem

Possibly a crazy thing to be writing about the current world No.1 and recent Australian Open champion. But margins are fine in tennis and his biggest rival has some hard court gifts that can make even small problems loom large.

March 2026Essay, 4 min read3 charts