Break points

Court diagrams of rally forehands hit from the middle or backhand side against right-handers in 2025–26. The top 30 average splits 49% to the deuce side and 51% inside-out to the ad side; De Minaur sends 30% to the deuce side and 70% inside-out to the ad side.

De Minaur's forehand mostly goes one way

This was arguably the most influential point of the match, a break point De Minaur created and dominated until the last shot in set 1.

October 20262 chartsVideo

Two court diagrams of Alcaraz's ad-side first serves on hard courts over the last 52 weeks. On all points (n=667) he goes 41% wide, 15% body and 44% T, winning 72 to 74% out wide and down the T. On break points (n=56) 71% go wide or body (48% wide, 23% body, 29% T) and he wins only 59% of the wide serves.

Alcaraz has a serve problem

Possibly a crazy thing to be writing about the current world No.1 and recent Australian Open champion. But margins are fine in tennis and his biggest rival has some hard court gifts that can make even small problems loom large.

March 2026Essay, 4 min read3 charts